MAGA’s Real Epstein Problem
The real risk for Trumpism isn’t the Epstein files - it’s what might not be in them.
Author’s note: my apologies for a long gap in publishing, I was moving and my computer doesn’t work when it’s over 100F outside due to budget cuts, but I hope to be back to a regular cadence soon.
Also I will be attending the upcoming Liberalism for the 21st Century conference in Washington, D.C. next month, feel free to reach out on Bluesky if you will be there.
For what it’s worth, I still don’t think there’s any sort of “client list” or other extremely damning information in the unreleased Epstein files. However the actions of the Trump administration in the last week, from refusing to release any additional relevant information to lashing out at his own base, have made me question that assumption a bit. This is, without a doubt, a case of Trump’s base turning on him to an extent not seen since the immediate aftermath of January 6th, and this time the call is coming from inside the house. The ecosystem of right-wing podcasts, news channels, and online brainrot factories that backed Trump’s message throughout his sojourn in opposition are not letting up on this issue.
It’s unclear what would be more damaging politically at this point, if the DOJ is hiding information damaging to Trump in the files, or if there were nothing in the files at all. I’d still be skeptical about any substantial damage to Trump if anything came out of this about him. His relationship with Epstein is well known and documented. Trump has been accused of (and held civilly liable for) sexual assault, and admitted on tape to groping women in the now-famous October surprise tape. Trump’s right-wing ecosphere can wash away any sins it seems, and I’d find it hard to believe this would be the thing that would credibly bring him down. Not impossible - I’ve never seen the base this angry at Trump and Trump this angry at the base - but I can’t allow myself to imagine that could actually happen after all this time.
If there is credible evidence of wrongdoing by people other than Epstein and Maxwell, I hope it comes out though a proper and legal channel. Often forgotten in this political melee are the actual victims of, by all accounts, a horrific sex trafficking operation. We should also be cautious about releasing evidence from an investigation on individuals who were not themselves indicted. This is something that has traditionally been opposed by liberals and libertarians alike, as it undermines due process and the presumption of innocence. I want to take down Trump too - and believe it’s a core requirement of our continued liberal democracy - but we can’t sacrifice our liberal democratic values in response.
Let’s think about the more likely scenario then. The White House hasn’t released any additional information about the Epstein case because there isn’t any additional information about the Epstein case. They used the conspiracy to motivate potential voters because it perfectly matches their message - they are evil, they are out to get you, your children, even the straight frogs. Just who is on the Epstein client list changes depending on the audience on the left or right - sometimes it’s the Obamas and the Clintons, sometimes it’s Trump and a bunch of billionaires, and if you get a conspiracy nut with a bipartisan flair, it’s probably all of them - the illustrious “elites.”
Accusing your political opponents of wide-ranging crazy conspiracies, particularly involving children as victims, is nothing new or unique. Accusing an entire group of “elites” and institutions of being in on it is also not new. It happened in Germany - I’ll let you guess the time period - and it’s happened in populist-led uprisings across the world. It’s a hallmark of an illiberal movement, a way to get people who might not understand or care about the cultural or economic arguments they make to get behind them by building on a natural mistrust of institutions, the wealthy, the powerful, and the elite. But at it’s core, there must be a cover up. There must be a conspiracy of the all powerful, the people that make decisions that ruin your life. That is the core conceit of populism writ large - the elites, the rich, the powerful are evil.
It’s telling that even among the MAGA base that is upset at Trump, they are not upset at him because they think he might be in the Epstein files. For the most part, they concede that he probably is. There’s lots of photos and evidence that Trump and Epstein had a close relationship, and the Trump-aligned talking point is that they were both running in similar circles so of course they knew each other. They are upset because they think that Trump is not brave enough to reveal the conspiracy. They voted for him to take down the “elites” and now he is “protecting” them.
Because the worst possible outcome for the populist right is not that there is horrific evidence about Trump’s behavior in the files - it’s that there might not be proof that their own political enemies are evil, after all.