A few quick notes this evening on two developing situations in Germany and Ireland. Two countries which I don’t explicitly cover, but Germany in particular will be relevant in a Trump-era NATO and EU. (Ireland has fun political party names, which is also the only reason I occasionally follow Finnish politics.)
Chancellor Olaf Scholz beendete his coalition agreement with the Free Democratic Party after now-ousted finance minster Christian Linder published a paper where he reminded everyone, including the FDP’s eroding base, that the FDP is, in fact, a liberal party, and urged cuts to taxes, welfare, and climate regulations. Not surprisingly, the other members of the coalition, Scholz’ ruling Social Democratic Party and the Greens, were less than enthused. DW reports that after that stunt and after Linder rejected an alternative proposal from Scholz to plug the hole in the nation’s budget (apparently, some nations do that), Scholz fired Linder and the FDP from the coalition.
The German economy is struggling, and polls show the SDP down to around 16% of the vote, with the Greens down to 12%, both down significantly from their 2021 share. The FDP has fallen even more, from 11% to 4% in recent polling averages, while the center-right CDU has recovered into the 30s. AfD, the far-right party, sits in second in the popular vote polling at 18%. Unless Scholz can reach an agreement with the CDU to maintain his government - with the CDU at nearly double the SDP’s vote share that seems unlikely - he will likely head to an election in the New Year. Assuming they do, all eyes will be on the steadily increasing AfD vote.
Ireland will be heading to the polls on November 29th for their first election since the pandemic. The two dominant parties of Irish politics, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, have been in a coalition together since 2020. At that election, left-wing Sinn Féin won a plurality of the popular vote for the first time in almost 100 years. As a result, the two parties have been trading off who gets to be Taoiseach, much like a recently divorced couple with joint custody of the labradoodle. Who knows, maybe this year will be the year I start covering Irish politics.
In other news…
Speaking of Ireland, apparently the government is not only mandating that students don’t have their phone on them during class, they are actually funding mandatory national phone pouches. Which seems like a good use of taxpayer money.
Meanwhile in Australia, PM Anthony Albanese has been denying allegations that in opposition and in a previous government he called airline Qantas’ then-CEO to request free upgrades, including when Albanese was transport minister with regulatory authority over the airline. The claim carries particular concern because just last year, Albanese’s government blocked Qatar Airways from additional flights into Australia, which critics say was an attempt at protecting Qantas.