The Last Day

Tomorrow will be the beginning of something new. Where it ends will depend on how Americans react.

I spent my last full day before the new administration at a funeral. Life sometimes has a way of writing poetry the mind cannot conceive of.

I have a particular affection for finality and ominous goodbyes. In February 2022, in the hours leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ABC correspondent Martha Raddatz read a text she received from a source, which read “you are likely in the last few hours of peace on the European continent for a long time to come.” Set against the dark backdrop of early morning Kyiv and knowing what was about to happen, it was about as foreboding a moment I’ve seen on live television in years.

Today is a day of finality. A few times over the last week I’ve been asked by personal friends what I think the next few years will look like. I answered with that quote from Martha Raddatz. Not because we are facing the immediate and deadly threat that Ukraine was that night, but because today is likely to be the freest, most cohesive, most democratic, and most prosperous the United States is going to be for a generation. Tomorrow at noon we will not see massive changes right away, and much of Trump’s stated plans will not come to pass. That we know from his first term. Life will go on for most of us. But things will get worse.

Tariffs and protectionist policies will hurt jobs, make goods more expensive and harder to get. Corruption and nationalism, combined with decreased household wealth from tariffs, will make America a worse place to invest, which continues a negative cycle on the economy. His hand-picked agency heads are already openly talking about targeting anti-Trump media, companies, and institutions, which will make speaking out against the government dangerous for those who want to keep their job. Schools and higher education will come under particular pressure as federal funding is targeted away from topics deemed “controversial” and schools pressure their faculty and students to restrain themselves. All of this will put the democratic order in immense danger. Subverting democracy using force is nearly impossible in America due to the complicated multi-jurisdictional nature of our elections. Subverting it using pressure from a compliant media, government, and employers (threatened by corrupt government regulators) is possible, and the emergence of modern autocratic Russia is a warning sign of how this might happen.

I know, I’m being a bummer. That’s the reasonable worst case scenario. But to be clear I think some level of that is going to happen no matter what. Particularly when you consider that immigration and tariffs are shared goals among many in both major parties. Already the Democrats assisted in passing the Laken Riley Act in the House, which subverts due process for some immigrants charged, but not convicted, of low level crimes. Biden supported targeted tariffs and kept many Trump-era tariffs in place, and worked with the GOP on nationalist follies like banning TikTok. Local and state governments are restricting freedom in society already, from banning porn, to locking down libraries, and making public schools near impossible to manage and teach. The rhetoric around trans people is downright frightening, and both the feds and state governments continue to turn the screws there as well. This is all unrelated to Trump but the symptom of a conservative base unmoored by even needing to pretend to support freedom and democracy anymore.

To be clear, I think the role of libertarians, liberals, and those opposed to Donald Trump’s autocratic vision is to oppose every inch towards it. That doesn’t mean you have to oppose 100% of everything. During Trump’s first term I supported the GOP’s tax reforms, the repeal of government-mandated net neutrality, and many changes to the regulatory system. And if Trump’s team proposes similar smaller government changes in a legal and democratic manner I’ll support those too. But for his worst impulses, for his attempts at remaking the United States to serve him, extract as high of a political cost as possible for every change and every executive order. Elevate every tragedy he causes - he wants the chaos, give it to him. Blast it on Red Note or whatever the kids are using now, go on Joe Rogan and tell him about it. I don’t care. The only way you stop the slow march to autocracy is by using your voice, your power, your vote while we have it. Trump is not the first democratically-elected leader to harbor autocratic and corrupt ambitions. What stopped previous attempts, from Nixon to Yoon in South Korea, is public and political pressure and outrage drowning out their ability to do so.

This is also not to say that the America that exists on January 19, 2025 was perfect in any way. As someone who grew up as a libertarian activist, I don’t think I can be accused of downplaying our country’s past and current human rights and civil liberties record, our economic challenges, or the shortcomings of our democracy. I have fifteen years worth of writings, tweets, and actual campaign work to prove that. America is, as the saying goes, a work in progress, and the version of libertarianism that always attracted me is a forward-looking, optimistic, progressive vision of a freer society for all, not a reminiscing of the past. I still believe and support that. I still think America can and will come out of this dark era. I’m just not under the illusion that it will be tomorrow, that it will be easy, or that the American public wants a freer society by default. A dangerously high amount of them don’t right now. That’s on us to figure out how to sell freedom, democracy, and economic prosperity against the simplicity of autocracy and blaming others.