Why the Syrian War Looms Large Over Europe
Assad destroyed Syria, but his civil war led to a right-ward shift across Europe.
Last night, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad added “#OpenToWork” to his LinkedIn profile picture, a stunning fall for a middle eastern strongman who has fought tooth and nail over the last thirteen years to hold onto power. The Syrian civil war began as one of the original “Arab Spring” uprisings, turned into a fundamentalist insurgency, then an all-out war against ISIS, and finally ended up a simmering international proxy battle. As recently as last year, Assad was considered to have sort-of won the war, with regional governments beginning to normalize relations with him after leaving him for dead earlier in the conflict. The speed with which rebel forces, led by former al-Qaeda offshoot HTS, consolidated territory and the collapse of the Syrian government’s own military, surprised most outside observers.
There is a lot to be said about what comes next in Syria. Rebel leadership at least outwardly appears interested in a peaceful consolidation of power, the different forces involved in the civil war are navigating how to extract themselves (and failing that, bombing each other), and there will be a lot to watch over the coming year in Syria. I, however, do not typically write about the goings on of a middle eastern civil war. I’m more fascinated at how much the Syrian war has dominated politics particularly in Europe.
The Syrian civil war was not the longest running or deadliest in the world in recent times. Myanmar, Sudan, and multiple other conflicts in Africa have been longer running and more violent in some aspects. But Syria’s location and relative proximity to Europe, and the impact of coming at the end of a decade where America and Europe were singularly focused on anti-terrorism campaigns in the Middle East, meant that this war took on an outsized impact on politics and society in the west.
The two most obvious examples are Europe’s refugee crisis and terror campaigns inspired by ISIS. Over 6 million Syrians are estimated to be refugees outside of the country as a result of the conflict, and a significant amount of those ended up in the EU. Europe’s image of itself as a tolerant society, welcoming of others, was challenged by the sudden increase in immigration. Right-wing and populist parties tapped into public discontent with refugees, a discontent formed by some real-life events and by common anti-immigration tropes we’ve seen for centuries.
Tied to that was a campaign of terrorism in the middle part of last decade in London, Paris, and across Europe by terrorists inspired by ISIS during the height of it’s political power in Syria and Iraq. Europe’s political Overton window moved much farther right as a result of these dual crises, coming just years after the 2008 financial crisis and debt crisis. The drumbeat of news about Syrian, Assad, and the fight against ISIS dominated politics for years, and continued as the war simmered over the last few years. The Ukrainian war became the focus, of course, taking place in the continent and launching another round of refugee concerns as well.
It was the Ukrainian war which likely contributed to Assad’s downfall as well. Russia heavily backed the Syrian government’s military, and with Russian resources heavily starved due to the invasion of Ukraine, Assad was clearly cut loose and given a ride to Moscow rather than continue to try and use Russian military equipment and soldiers when Putin needs them elsewhere (like fending off a highly-embarrassing Ukrainian incursion into his own country). There are no doubt many African dictators, who have formed military alliances with Russia against Islamic rebels in their own countries, that are looking warily at Syria and what their own futures hold.
It’s worth noting that aside from just generally being stunned last night that Assad was so quickly removed from power, I enjoyed the almost exasperated relief that many on BlueSky and others felt about a dictator being removed from power. At first I felt the need to be cynical. HTS and other rebel groups are not supporters of liberal, secular democracy. From Egypt to Tunisia to Libya, we have seen post-Arab Spring states either turn to new dictators or collapse entirely. Still, I’m pulled back from my cynicism by two things. One, today has had a steady stream of videos from Syrian government prisons of civilians being released, including women and children. The Assad government earned it’s reputation of fear among the population, and that reputation started long before the 2011 uprising. This is a net good today, no matter what comes next.
Second, its an important reminder that dictatorships almost always fall. Maybe not as quickly as you want them to, maybe not peacefully, and maybe only to be replaced with another authoritarian. But the Soviets and their empire fell, the Nazis and their satellite states fell, Assad has fallen. Authoritarian regimes are not as stable as they like to think they are or may appear from the outside - and yes, I do think that even seemingly stable authoritarian countries like China and the oil-rich Gulf states will face political upheaval in the future as well.
That’s not to say that what comes after Assad won’t be bad. It may in some ways be worse. I don’t think that’s a reason to defend a murderous, torturous dictator. Richard Nixon once defended the Shah of Iran and said that he wasn’t ruthless enough, because what came after him was worse. This attitude should surprise no one coming out of Richard Nixon, and ignores that part of what enabled a successful revolution by the Ayatollahs was the violent and repressive regime he ran. So it’s okay to be relieved at seeing a bad dictatorship fall, and it’s okay to be cynical about what comes next.